Each winter, a flurry of food and nutrition trend lists floods my inbox. While these individually make for good coffee break reading, I wanted a holistic view. What, I wondered, were the trends that rise to the top? And, what are the odd outliers that fascinate? Beyond the buzz of local and sustainable, what do food and nutrition folks need to know now? To answer these questions, I sought common threads from the National Restaurant Association (NRA) survey of 1,800 chefs; trend writers Nancy Kruse and Rieva Lesonsky; trend firms Mintel, Innova, Leatherhead and Technomic; restaurant consultants Baum + Whiteman; and Publicis Consultants USA’s culinary director, my colleague and friend, Joy Blakeslee, RD.
Part 1: The Mega Trends
Reiterated by three or more sources, these are the closest thing to a sure bet. Who wants to open an all-day, late-night kimchee-topped anything bar with me? We’ll harvest cabbage for the kimchee from our hyper local restaurant garden and pickle it ourselves. Served with wasabi ice cream or a culinary cocktail.
Perpetual Snacking: As Publicis’ Blakeslee puts it, “Make way for ‘grazing the day,’ as 24/7 lifestyles heighten the demand for snack-able foods. Smaller portions and mini-bites – sweet to savory – will invade restaurant menus and grocery store shelves.” Technomic predicts restaurants will flex on format – fast-casual by day, full-service by night – to service different day parts and monetize unused kitchen capacity. I’d add that the booming happy hour trend of 2011 demonstrated tables don’t need to empty between traditional lunch and dinner shifts. Baum + Whiteman see hotels with upscale cocktail lists, bar food menus and furnishings as big beneficiaries, as road warriors and late-working desk jockeys drop in for flexible snacking and later dining.
Global Food Mash-Up: This isn’t about slavish dedication to a cuisine or cannon, but the pleasure of exciting food. Perhaps you’ve stopped at a food truck for a sandwich of chipotle pork with burnt sugar glaze, carrot-wasabi slaw and herb mayo? Baum + Whiteman describe what you tasted: “A multi-ethnic, multi-sensory dining experience where flavors clash on purpose. A multi-culti zucchini pizza dabbed with hummus and topped with crunchy wasabi peas is from nowhere geographically because it is from everywhere.” Mintel reverses the old trend of U.S. chains pushing out domestic menu concepts overseas as they expanded, with ideas now flowing in. Blakeslee sees the budget appeal for 20-something Millennials: you might not hop a plane to an exotic destination in 2012, but you can treat yourself to a kimchee-topped hotdog from super-hot Japadog!
Comfort Carriers: Austerity-fatigued Americans find they’re bored with unadorned meatloaf, roast chicken and once-soothing mashed potatoes. But, they’ll look to next gen comfort food’s familiar meats and carbs as carriers for the new global foods mash-up. Witness the popularity of Myung Sook Lee’s kimchee meatballs at the Culinary Institute of America’s Worlds of Flavor conference; Michel Richard opened an all-meatball restaurant in Washington, DC, with flavors from Tandoori to soul food. Lesonsky explains, “Americans are eager to try new tastes, as long as it’s couched in something they know.” Technomic foresees “comfort food with a twist” atop wood-fired pizzas, while Baum + Whiteman envision mac ‘n cheese with crunchy chicharrones, fried chicken with Korean or Latino flavors and “no limit to what people will slap onto hamburgers.” Blakeslee at Publicis expects this desire for a step up from standard fare to lead to greater demand for restaurant-quality experiences at home.
Free and Flexible: Nearly all the trend reports touch on “gluten-free,” “dairy-free” or some other “-free” food that consumers limit because of allergies, intolerances or otherwise restrictive diets. In 2012, the NRA-surveyed chefs believe diners will find menus friendlier to restrictive diets as chefs adapt to customers’ needs. Mintel notes that consumers feel a “growing demand for control” and customized ordering systems will grant them the flexibility to design the meal they truly want to eat.
Affordable Luxury: Baum + Whiteman remind us, “No, everyone’s not broke.” A large portion of the population will be happily working in 2012 or have a bit less, but not nothing, to spend. When these diners go out to eat, they’ll want to indulge in a fun adventure as well as eat good food. Innova predicts a greater disparity between extreme discount and super premium products, and Leatherhead suggests premium foods stand out to Americans as an affordable indulgence compared to bigger ticket items. Mintel even sees double-sided menus, with premium choices on one side and value pricing on the other. While consumers spend, cash is tight for restaurants, so this won’t translate to expensive proteins.
Location, Location, Location: In addition to addressing safety concerns with a reassuring food origin or boosting local purveyors, experts predict renewed enthusiasm for “best of” American regional and world flavors. Think best of Memphis or Kansas City BBQ, New England chowder and Low Country grits, hints Mintel … perhaps all on the same menu. This doesn’t always mean “local”; ingredients like Madagascan vanilla figure into the dialogue, notes Leatherhead, and Lesonsky offers up Swedish sweets as a hot provenance. Korean will move off the food trucks and into Korean-inspired recipes in magazines and possibly the chains, according to Baum + Whiteman (save Peruvian for 2013). When we do talk “local,” the misuse/overuse of the word may make the bubble go bust. Instead, look for “hyper local” with one-third of NRA-surveyed chefs gardening on-premise and Blakeslee’s notion of do-it-yourself encompassing beehives, chicken coops, heirloom veggie gardens, home brewing and canning in 2012.
Part 2: The Outliers
Only mentioned by one or two trend spotters, these outliers could fizzle. But, they have a certain spark that makes me think we should keep an eye on them.
• Pop-ular Popcorn – Nutritious, affordable, convenient snacking; the most fun you can have with whole grains, says Blakeslee
• Non-Traditional Fish – NRA-surveyed chefs plan to delve into new types of sustainable fish; Blakeslee at Publicis points them to an Australian import called Barramundi, with flaky flesh and lots of omega-3s but low toxins
• Kids’ Nutrition – The NRA chefs are considering healthful kids’ meals in general , kid-friendly whole grains and fruit/veggie sides specifically and mini-meals that scale down adult menu items for smaller stomachs rather than pander with chicken fingers and fries
• Ice Cream – House-made, artisan ice creams keep their cool (another shout out for wasabi ice cream here) and the next big thing may be the lighter, airier “snow ice,” reports Lesonsky
• Anti-Aging Elixirs –Innova and Leatherhead remind us that boomers and seniors are hungry for foods fortified with glucosamine to ease achy joints and omega-3s for brain and heart health
• Plenty of Proteins – “World casual” staples of hummus and yogurt (in flavors by the dozen) add affordable variety, notes Kruse; plus, the fried egg-topped burger craze riffs on Korean bibimbap
• Sandwich Structures – From arepas to bao, the sandwich has a new flexibility; Baum + Whiteman believe you could even hold it together with two waffles
• Caterpillar Casual – As casualization seeps into fine dining, vertical towers of food artistry will topple, giving way to flat plating (for a mental image, visualize caterpillar rolls at a sushi bar), says Baum + Whiteman
That’s the wrap on food trends. It’s fun for foodies like me to dream about what we’ll eat and sip through 2012. However, it’s also worth noting that smart use of the trends can make or break a business. Mom-and-pop restaurants generally last until their credit cards max out, and large chains must accurately predict what foods the most people will want to eat in order to succeed in economies of scale. As we toast to 2012, let’s raise a glass to our favorite independent and chain-based chefs, and wish them another year of tantalizing us with a global mash-up of delights.
Diana Steeble is a Vice President at Publicis Consultants USA in Seattle. Her 12-year tenure includes award-winning outreach to food and health professionals for the United Soybean Board. PRWeek Magazine recognized Diana as one of their “40 under 40” in 2011. She can be reached at: diana.steeble@publicisconsultants.com and 206-270-4637.